What does the data tell us for 2024?

EDITION: QUARTER 1 2024

Now that 2023 has come to an end, we have the opportunity to look at the data from the year and what this could mean for 2024. Below is just a quick snapshot of 2023, but we can infer some trends and anecdotes about where this leads us for the upcoming year.

I plan to share data regularly through email and the website going forward. I believe that data is a mechanism for us all to make smart, educated decisions.

Our data set above is from the Colorado Association of Realtors, specifically for Montezuma County. We have a data set for December, compared year over year to 2022, as well as a 2023 in review as our Year to Date data.

I think the biggest standouts for me on the Year to Date column is the reduction of New Listings and of Sold Listings. These numbers reflect the trends we’ve seen, particularly in the second half of 2023. If we hop over to the December column and at the bottom review Inventory of Homes for Sale, and Months Supply of Inventory, the assumption that homes sold at a slower pace in 2023 I believe is supported by the substantial increase in inventory as we ended the year.

Increase in inventory drives market competition, potentially resulting in a decrease in home prices, I don’t believe we see anything too drastic however. If we look at Days on Market Until Sale, we see that there is just a slight uptick over the prior year. My theory remains that homes priced correctly, aligned with the market, will sell in a reasonable timeframe.

With interest rates seemingly constant or a slight decrease, and an upcoming election year, I believe this spring and summer will see buyers reentering the market as they’ll have a) More inventory=More choices, b) Interest rates that have seemingly settled into a norm and may continue to decrease slowly, and c) The ability to negotiate off the list price. (See above that December was 93.4% on Percent of List Price Received*).

*Just a quick tangent, that is calculated as the sale price vs. list price, so for example a home listed at $300,000 would on average sell for $280,200.

Some other news? Well, Montezuma County is tracking Median Sales Price similarly to statewide trends. Overall I believe this is healthy for our economy and a general positive that Montezuma County housing is growing at a similar rate as the state.

I’d recommend everyone to do your due diligence, we all have different opinions and interpretations of the market with our own biases.

If you have other questions, or want to see a specific set of data, comparable sales to your home. Please reach out, even if you’re just curious, I don’t mind geeking out on some data. (I actually enjoy it.)

-Eric

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